Risk Analysis-ETFs (2024)

Risk Analysis-ETFs (1)

Mean 3 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year

The mean represents the annualized average monthly return from which the standard deviation is calculated. The mean will not be exactly the same as the annualized trailing, three-year return figure for the same year. (Technically, the mean is an annualized arithmetic average while the total return figure is an annualized geometric average.)

Standard Deviation 3 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year

Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the range of a fund's performance. When a fund has a high standard deviation, its range of performance has been very wide, indicating that there is a greater potential for volatility. The standard deviation figure provided here is an annualized statistic based on 36 monthly returns. By definition, approximately 68% of the time, the total returns of any given fund are expected to differ from its mean total return by no more than plus or minus the standard deviation figure. Ninety-five percent of the time, a fund's total returns should be within a range of plus or minus two times the standard deviation from its mean. These ranges assume that a fund's returns fall in a typical bell-shaped distribution.

Sharpe Ratio 3 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year

Our Sharpe ratio is based on a risk-adjusted measure developed by Nobel Laureate William Sharpe. It is calculated using standard deviation and excess return to determine reward per unit of risk.

First, the average monthly return of the 90-day Treasury bill (over a 36-month period) is subtracted from the fund's average monthly return. The difference in total return represents the fund's excess return beyond that of the 90-day Treasury bill, a risk-free investment. An arithmetic annualized excess return is then calculated by multiplying this monthly return by 12. To show a relationship between excess return and risk, this number is then divided by the standard deviation of the fund's annualized excess returns. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the fund's historical risk-adjusted performance.

Alpha 3 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year

Alpha measures the difference between a fund's actual returns and its expected performance, given its level of risk (as measured by beta). A positive alpha figure indicates the fund has performed better than its beta would predict. In contrast, a negative alpha indicates a fund has underperformed, given the expectations established by the fund's beta. Some investors see alpha as a measurement of the value added or subtracted by a fund's manager. There are limitations to alpha's ability to accurately depict a manager's added or subtracted value. In some cases, a negative alpha can result from the expenses that are present in the fund figures but are not present in the figures of the comparison index. Alpha is dependent on the accuracy of beta: If the investor accepts beta as a conclusive definition of risk, a positive alpha would be a conclusive indicator of good fund performance. Of course, the value of beta is dependent on another statistic, known as R-squared.

Beta 3 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year

Beta, a component of Modern Portfolio Theory statistics, is a measure of a fund's sensitivity to market movements. It measures the relationship between a fund's excess return over T-bills and the excess return of the benchmark index. Equity funds are compared with the S&P 500 index; bond funds are compared with the Barclays Aggregate Bond index. Morningstar calculates beta using the same regression equation as the one used for alpha, which regresses excess return for the fund against excess return for the index. This approach differs slightly from other methodologies that rely on a regression of raw returns.

By definition, the beta of the benchmark (in this case, an index) is 1.00. Accordingly, a fund with a 1.10 beta has performed 10% better than its benchmark index -- after deducting the T-bill rate -- than the index in up markets and 10% worse in down markets, assuming all other factors remain constant. Conversely, a beta of 0.85 indicates that the fund has performed 15% worse than the index in up markets and 15% better in down markets. A low beta does not imply that the fund has a low level of volatility, though; rather, a low beta means only that the funds market-related risk is low. A specialty fund that invests primarily in gold, for example, will often have a low beta (and a low R-squared), relative to the S&P 500 index, as its performance is tied more closely to the price of gold and gold-mining stocks than to the overall stock market. Thus, though the specialty fund might fluctuate wildly because of rapid changes in gold prices, its beta relative to the S&P may remain low.

R2 (R-Squared) 3 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year

R-squared ranges from 0 to 100 and reflects the percentage of a fund's movements that are explained by movements in its benchmark index. An R-squared of 100 means that all movements of a fund are completely explained by movements in the index. Thus, index funds that invest only in S&P 500 stocks will have an R-squared very close to 100. Conversely, a low R-squared indicates that very few of the fund's movements are explained by movements in its benchmark index. An R-squared measure of 35, for example, means that only 35% of the fund's movements can be explained by movements in its benchmark index. Therefore, R-squared can be used to ascertain the significance of a particular beta or alpha. Generally, a higher R-squared will indicate a more useful beta figure. If the R-squared is lower, then the beta is less relevant to the fund's performance.

©2023 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.

Risk Analysis-ETFs (2024)

FAQs

How to calculate ETF risk? ›

An arithmetic annualized excess return is then calculated by multiplying this monthly return by 12. To show a relationship between excess return and risk, this number is then divided by the standard deviation of the fund's annualized excess returns.

What is the biggest risk in ETF? ›

Market risk

The single biggest risk in ETFs is market risk.

How do I know if my ETF is safe? ›

ETFs can be safe investments if used correctly, offering diversification and flexibility. Indexed ETFs, tracking specific indexes like the S&P 500, are generally safe and tend to gain value over time. Leveraged ETFs can be used to amplify returns, but they can be riskier due to increased volatility.

How do you evaluate risk of an ETF? ›

The two ways to see how closely an ETF matches the index performance are 'tracking error' and 'tracking difference'. Tracking difference addresses how closely the ETF tracks the index returns, while tracking error reflects how consistent over time the tracking quality is.

What is the 30 day rule on ETFs? ›

Q: How does the wash sale rule work? If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or a substantially identical security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, you won't be able to take a loss for that security on your current-year tax return.

How to tell if an ETF is overvalued? ›

Compare the ETF's Market Price to the NAV

Compare the market price to the NAV to determine if the ETF is trading at a premium or discount to its NAV. If the market price is higher than the NAV, the ETF is trading at a premium. If the NAV is lower than the price, the ETF is trading at a discount.

Why is ETF not a good investment? ›

There are many ways an ETF can stray from its intended index. That tracking error can be a cost to investors. Indexes do not hold cash but ETFs do, so a certain amount of tracking error in an ETF is expected. Fund managers generally hold some cash in a fund to pay administrative expenses and management fees.

Are ETFs more risky than stocks? ›

ETFs are less risky than individual stocks because they are diversified funds. Their investors also benefit from very low fees.

Which ETF is the safest? ›

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the safer types of investments out there, as they require less effort than investing in individual stocks while also increasing diversification.

Can an ETF go to zero? ›

For most standard, unleveraged ETFs that track an index, the maximum you can theoretically lose is the amount you invested, driving your investment value to zero. However, it's rare for broad-market ETFs to go to zero unless the entire market or sector it tracks collapses entirely.

Are ETFs safe in a crash? ›

Investors looking to weather a recession can use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as one way to reduce risk through diversification. ETFs that specialize in consumer staples and non-cyclicals outperformed the broader market during the Great Recession and are likely to persevere in future downturns.

What are three disadvantages to owning an ETF over a mutual fund? ›

Disadvantages of ETFs
  • Trading fees. Although ETFs are generally cheaper than other lower-risk investment options (such as mutual funds) they are not free. ...
  • Operating expenses. ...
  • Low trading volume. ...
  • Tracking errors. ...
  • The possibility of less diversification. ...
  • Hidden risks. ...
  • Lack of liquidity. ...
  • Capital gains distributions.

What happens if an ETF goes bust? ›

Liquidation of ETFs is strictly regulated; when an ETF closes, any remaining shareholders will receive a payout based on what they had invested in the ETF. Receiving an ETF payout can be a taxable event.

How do you know if an ETF is doing well? ›

Since the job of most ETFs is to track an index, we can assess an ETF's efficiency by weighing the fee rate the fund charges against how well it “tracks”—or replicates the performance of—its index. ETFs that charge low fees and track their indexes tightly are highly efficient and do their job well.

Do ETFs lose value over time? ›

The volatility drag of leveraged ETFs means that losses in the ETF can be magnified over time and they are not suitable for long-term investments.

What is the formula for calculating risk? ›

Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its consequence. In general, this can be explained as: Risk = Likelihood × Impact. In particular, IT risk is the business risk associated with the use, ownership, operation, involvement, influence and adoption of IT within an enterprise.

How do you calculate 2% risk in trading? ›

Using the 2% Rule With a Stop Loss Order

Suppose that a trader has a $50,000 trading account and wants to trade Apple, Inc. (AAPL). Using the 2% rule, the trader can risk $1,000 of capital ($50,000 x 0.02%). If AAPL is trading at $170 and the trader wants to use a $15 stop loss, they can buy 67 shares ($1,000 / $15).

What is the formula for ETF? ›

To find the daily NAV of an ETF, subtract the liabilities from the fund's assets and divide by the number of ETF shares outstanding. Institutional investors step in to buy or sell when the ETF price diverges too much; this arbitrage tends to keep the price tightly aligned with the NAV. Fidelity.

How do you calculate risk of a fund? ›

Sharpe Ratio - Risk-adjusted returns

The Sharpe Ratio evaluates a fund's risk-adjusted performance. It is calculated by subtracting the risk free rate of return from the fund's returns and then dividing this result by the fund's Standard Deviation.

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