Financial analysts and the financial media often refer to U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) as risk-free investments. And it's true. The United States government has never defaulted on a debt or missed a payment on a debt. You would have to envision the utter collapse of the government to find a scenario that would involve losing any of the principal invested in a T-bond.
Key Takeaways
- There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in T-bonds.
- There is a risk that you could have earned better money elsewhere.
- Investing decisions are always a tradeoff between risk and reward.
The crucial word above is "principal." In investing, the safest investments have the lowest returns. And accepting a low return is in itself a risky decision.
Understanding U.S. Treasury Bond Risk
Most investments in debt, from corporate bonds to mortgage-backed securities, carry some degree of default risk. The investor accepts the risk that the borrower will be unable to keep up the interest payments or return the principal invested.
In the event of bankruptcy, bondholders are first in line before other investors, but that's no guarantee of full repayment.
This is not true for T-bonds, which are backed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. That means the Federal Reserve. Investors know that the Treasury Department will pay them back even if the Fed's balance sheet is ugly.
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
Inflation
Every economy experiences inflation from time to time, to one degree or another. T-bonds have a low yield, or return on investment. A little bit of inflation can erase that return, and a little more can effectively eat into your savings.
That is, an investment of $1,000 in a T-bond for one year at 1% interest would get you $1,010. But if inflation was 2%, the initial investment when it is returned will have the buying power of a little under $990.
Interest Rate Risk
When interest rates rise, the market value of debt securities tends to drop. This makes it difficult for the bond investor to sell a T-bond without losing on the investment.
Opportunity Costs
All financial decisions, even T-bond investments, carry opportunity costs.
An investor who purchases a $1,000 T-bond loses the chance to invest or spend that $1,000 elsewhere. The investor might have been better off putting $1,000 into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offered a greater potential for return along with a greater risk of principal loss. For that matter, the investor might have bought a new laptop for $1,000. If inflation continues at its current pace, that model will cost $1,025 a year from now.
FAQs
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
What are the risks of Treasury bonds? ›
These are U.S. government bonds that offer a unique combination of safety and steady income. But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered.
What is a major disadvantage of purchasing US treasury bonds? ›
Interest rate risks: As are all bonds, Treasury bonds are subject to price volatility as a result of changes in market interest rates. Inflation risk: The interest earned on Treasury securities may not keep pace with inflation (with the exception of Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS).
What are the risks of investing in bonds? ›
Bonds are considered as a safe investment & also come with some risks which are Default Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Inflation Risk, Reinvestment Risk, Liquidity Risk, and Call Risk. Investors who like to take risks tend to make more money, but they might feel worried when the stock market goes down.
Is buying US treasury bonds a good idea? ›
While Treasury bonds don't have a serious risk that the government won't pay you back, they do have two other risks that are typical of bonds: inflation risk and interest rate risk. While Treasury bonds are relatively safe investments, one key risk is that inflation will erode your returns over the years.
What are the disadvantages of Treasury I bonds? ›
The initial yield is only good for the first six months you own the bond. After that, the investment acts like any other variable vehicle, meaning rates could go down and you have no control over it. And if you wait until, say, 2026 to buy an I bond, the initial rate could be well below current levels.
What are the key risks in the Treasury? ›
Examples of treasury risks include interest rate risk, currency risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk. These risks can cause financial losses or negative impacts when managing an organization's cash and financial assets.
What is the major disadvantage of investing in bonds? ›
Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks. Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.
Why are bonds not a good investment? ›
Bonds are sensitive to interest rate changes.
Bonds have an inverse relationship with the Fed's interest rate. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. And when the interest rate is slashed, bond prices tend to rise. Surprise increases or decreases could create temporary instability.
Are bonds safe if the market crashes? ›
Where is your money safe if the stock market crashes? Money held in an interest bearing account like a money market account, a savings account or others is generally safe from losses stemming from a stock market decline. Bonds, including various Treasury securities can also be a safe haven.
Interest income from Treasury securities is subject to federal income tax but exempt from state and local taxes. Income from Treasury bills is paid at maturity and, thus, tax-reportable in the year in which it is received.
Are treasury bills safer than CDs? ›
Treasury bills can be a good choice for those looking for a low-risk, fixed-rate investment that doesn't require setting money aside for as long as a CD might call for. However, you still run the risk of losing out on higher rates and returns if the market is on the upswing while your money is locked in.
Which is better, treasury bills or bonds? ›
Compared with Treasury notes and bills, Treasury bonds usually pay the highest interest rates because investors want more money to put aside for the longer term. For the same reason, their prices, when issued, go up and down more than the others.
Are Treasury bonds 100% safe? ›
Treasury securities are considered a safe and secure investment option because the full faith and credit of the U.S. government guarantees that interest and principal payments will be paid on time. Also, most Treasury securities are liquid, which means they can easily be sold for cash.
Can Treasury bonds lose money? ›
Treasury bonds are considered safer than corporate bonds—you're practically guaranteed not to lose money—but there are other potential risks to be aware of. These stable investments aren't known for their high returns. Gains can be further diminished by inflation and changing interest rates.
Are T bills safer than savings accounts? ›
Treasury securities, including Treasury bills, also known as T-bills, offer higher APYs than many other savings options right now. And Treasury securities are among the safest places to put your money because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
What is riskier Treasury bonds or Treasury bills? ›
Which Are Riskier, Treasury Bonds, Notes, or Bills? Treasury bonds, notes, and bills have no default risk since the U.S. government guarantees them. Investors will receive the bond's face value if they hold it to maturity.
