'We’re prisoners': 3% mortgage rates are a blessing and a curse (2024)

Despite the fact that locking in fixed mortgage rates between 2% and 3% is considered to be a huge financial win, especially now that rates are hovering above 6%, it’s also a bit of a burden. Some homeowners, who locked in historically low rates during the pandemic, are now feeling trapped, or as one homeowner tells Fortune: “We’re prisoners.” They’d like to sell their home and buy something else; however, elevated mortgage rates mean the increased monthly mortgage payment to do so would be financially unbearable.

Look no further than Jennifer Lovelace. The 38-year-old realtor and owner of a local surf school in St. Augustine, Fla., told Fortune that she purchased her home in January 2020 for $215,000, with a 30-year FHA loan at a rate of 3.25%. Her monthly mortgage payment, after putting 10% down, is around $1,300 (including taxes, insurance, and her HOA dues). She and her partner bought their townhouse, thinking it’d be the “perfect starter [home],” and that they’d eventually be able to sell it or rent it out in a couple of years. But home values in her area have gone up along with interest rates, making it “impossible” for them to even consider moving up.

Lovelace told Fortune that it’s “frustrating” living in a 1,000-square-feet home, with her two sons, ages five and eight. But the only way they can afford to move is to go inland, which isn’t feasible for them.

“We’re staying put here for right now, waiting to see if the rates come down or prices come down,” Lovelace said. Still, she’s looking at mortgage rates and homes every single day.

Lovelace isn’t alone. The so-called “lock-in effect” is constraining both the supply and demand sides of the housing market as it sidelines move-up sellers and buyers across the nation. Which explains why mortgage purchase applications remain down 38% on a year-over-year basis.

Freddy Chica, a 36-year-old federal government employee, recently had a baby and would like to sell his current home and purchase a slightly bigger home, but the numbers just don’t make financial sense right now.

Chica told Fortune that he purchased his home in 2020 and locked in a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 3.25%. After putting 5% down on his home in Miami, which cost around $207,000, Chica said, his monthly mortgage payment (including taxes and insurance) comes out to $1,263. When he and his partner had their baby, they started looking for a bigger place that was slightly bigger than his 1,100-square-foot two-bedroom condo. He quickly realized it’d cost more than double what he’s paying right now to move up.

Chica was looking at townhomes in his area that were mostly around $400,000, with a rate around 6.5%. If he was to put 20% down on a $400,000 home and take on a mortgage for $320,000 at a 30-year fixed rate at 6.5%, his monthly payment (not including taxes and insurance) would be $2,023. That’d be a huge jump from his current mortgage payment of $856 per month.

“We’re [looking into] getting maybe a couple extra hundred square feet and maybe an extra bedroom,” Chica told Fortune, adding that that’s not enough to justify more than doubling his monthly mortgage payment. “It doesn’t make sense. So it’s hard.”

Chica and his partner have decided to stay put for now and try to free up some space in their home, by using up the attic space, remodeling a bit to build more shelves, and getting rid of stuff they don’t need.

“It just doesn’t make any sense to sell,” Chica said, adding later that they’re planning to stay another year or two and watch the market in the meantime, looking for rates to go down and prices to stabilize before moving. And at that point, Chica said, he’d still probably keep the place and rent it out. Chica said it was great to have his home at a low rate, but “it really sucks” being stuck.

“I want my baby to have more space to run around…[but] it kind of leaves you a little stuck,” Chica said, referring to his low mortgage rate that’s keeping him from moving.

Chris Noguera, a 27-year-old in software sales, locked in a 30-year fixed rate at 2.625% in October 2020 for his home in North Lake, Texas. He purchased the home for $420,000 and put 5% down, and told Fortune that his monthly payment is around $2,900.

He’d like to move, but after working with his real estate agent and mortgage broker to put down an offer on a larger house, Noguera realized it wasn’t feasible.

“We live our lives month to month, in terms of monthly bills,” Noguera told Fortune. “The monthly payment just would have been way too high… We just have to wait now…with the current market, we’re not going to be able to move.”

Noguera’s story isn’t unique: There’s a lot of sidelined housing supply and demand right now.

Mason Martinez, a 34-year-old realtor based in Tucson, bought his home in 2021 at a 30-year fixed rate at 2.75% (with a VA loan). He purchased the home for around $440,000, put $80,000 down, and took on a $360,000 mortgage. Martinez’s monthly mortgage payment, he told Fortune, comes out to $2,003 (with taxes and insurance). He and his wife would like to get a home with a bigger backyard for their three kids; however, Martinez says “it’s just not in the cards right now..it just doesn’t make sense, right now, to move, but we absolutely have dreams of moving,” and would’ve done so by now, if rates weren’t where they’re currently at.

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'We’re prisoners': 3% mortgage rates are a blessing and a curse (2024)

FAQs

Will mortgage rates ever go below 3% again? ›

By reducing its bond purchases, the Fed will reduce the supply of money in the market and put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, such as mortgage rates. Therefore, unless inflation slows down significantly in the coming months, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall back to 3% anytime soon.

How many people have a 3% mortgage? ›

More than three-quarters of homeowners — 78.7 percent — have a mortgage rate below 5 percent, while nearly 6 in 10 — 59.4 percent — have a mortgage below 4 percent. Just 22.6 percent have a mortgage rate below 3 percent, according to Redfin.

Is a 3% mortgage an asset? ›

Maximizing Your Money: Paying Down Your Low-Interest Mortgage vs. Investing. Owning a home with a low interest rate is a financial advantage that people may not fully appreciate. Your fixed-rate mortgage, in the 2%-3% range, is more than just a financial obligation—it's an asset.

Who are the mortgage prisoners? ›

Who are mortgage prisoners? Although definitions vary, generally speaking “mortgage prisoners” are people who are unable to switch mortgages to a better deal, even if they are up to date with their payments. Most mortgage prisoners have a mortgage in a closed book of an inactive firm.

How low will mortgage rates go in 2024? ›

Mortgage rate predictions 2024

The MBA's forecast suggests that 30-year mortgage rates will fall into the 6.5% to 6.9% range throughout the rest of 2024, and NAR is predicting a similar trajectory. But Fannie Mae thinks rates could stay in the low 7% range this year.

When was the last time mortgage rates were below 3? ›

The lowest interest rate for a mortgage in history came in 2020 and 2021. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, the 30-year fixed rate dropped under 3% for the first time since 1971, when Freddie Mac first began surveying mortgage lenders.

What percentage of Americans have a home without a mortgage? ›

Almost 40% of US homeowners own their homes outright as of 2022—many of them baby boomers who refinanced when rates were low. Anthony and Emily Stump, with Bo. This article is part of the November 20, 2023 issue of businessweek.

Does your 3 percent mortgage make you richer? ›

A recent Wall Street Journal column makes the case that, as rates rise, your 3% mortgage actually makes you richer than you think you are: “You still owe the money.

What percentage of US homeowners have a mortgage? ›

A record number of homeowners have no mortgage. Here's how it's shifting the housing market. Not only is 96% of mortgage debt in the U.S. fixed rate, but 38.5% of homeowners don't have a mortgage at all.

Is owning a house really an asset? ›

In addition, a home contains a lifetime of memories, not just a market price. However, though a home is certainly an asset when thinking about your net worth, when crafting your income statement for retirement, your primary home should reside under the expenses column.

Can you put 3 percent down on a conventional loan? ›

It's possible for first-time home buyers to get a conventional mortgage with a down payment as low as 3%.

What is a piggy back mortgage? ›

A “piggyback” second mortgage is a home equity loan or home equity line of credit (HELOC) that is made at the same time as your main mortgage. Its purpose is to allow borrowers with low down payment savings to borrow additional money in order to qualify for a main mortgage without paying for private mortgage insurance.

What is the mortgage trap? ›

As the name suggests it is a situation where homeowners are 'trapped' in their existing mortgage, unable to switch to a deal with better terms, or rates.

Who bailed out Fannie Mae? ›

The takeover of Fannie and Freddie was addressed in the U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Report and a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The terms of the bailout agreement between the U.S. Treasury Department and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What happened to families who could not pay their mortgage? ›

The servicer or lender can start the process to sell your home. If you can't catch up on your past due payments or work out another solution, the servicer or lender can begin a legal action (foreclosure) that could end up with them selling your home.

Will mortgage rates ever be 5 again? ›

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025. However, recent economic developments have led some forecasters to believe that rates will remain elevated at around 7% for the remainder of this year.

Will interest rates ever be 4 again? ›

Currently, over six out of 10 purchase and refinance loans are at rates below 4%, according to Freddie Mac. Those ultra-low rates are unlikely to return anytime soon—if at all—resulting in limited motivation for many homeowners to refinance.

How low will mortgage rates go in 2025? ›

Although you likely won't see the low rates buyers enjoyed during the pandemic, mortgage rates are still expected to dip in 2025. There's no surefire way to know how much of a drop to expect, but experts predict they could reach 6%.

Will interest rates go up or down in the next 3 years? ›

The Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady after its meeting on June 11 and 12, 2024. The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023. To combat inflation, the rate was raised 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023.

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