Data Source: from January 1927 to April 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 31 2024Currency: USD
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.48%
1 Day
May 31 2024
2.91%
Current Month
May 2024
The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.
It's exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.
In the last 30 Years, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio obtained a 7.68% compound annual return, with a 7.75% standard deviation.
Table of contents
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Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | ETF Ticker | ETF Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.00 | IJS | USD | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD) | |
| 20.00 | VTI | USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD) |
| 20.00 | SHY | USD | iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD) |
| 20.00 | TLT | USD | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Long-Term (USD) |
| 20.00 | GLD | USD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold (USD) |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024
The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
- the actual US Inflation rates.
May 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 31 2024
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | May 2024 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | MAX (~97Y) | |||
| Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio | 0.48 | 2.91 | -2.86 | 12.16 | 6.09 | 5.72 | 5.46 | 7.68 | 8.35 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | -3.16 | 10.13 | 2.64 | 1.48 | 2.53 | 5.00 | 5.20 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
IJS | USD | 1.41 | May 31 2024 | 4.56 | -6.50 | 15.66 | 6.86 | 6.19 | 7.28 | 10.18 | 12.72 | |
VTI | USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | 0.77 | May 31 2024 | 4.76 | -4.34 | 20.73 | 21.94 | 12.27 | 11.72 | 10.29 | 10.09 |
SHY | USD | iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond | 0.14 | May 31 2024 | 0.72 | -0.44 | 1.99 | 2.09 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 3.07 | 4.24 |
TLT | USD | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | 0.68 | May 31 2024 | 2.89 | -6.45 | 7.60 | -14.07 | -4.43 | 0.10 | 5.08 | 4.90 |
GLD | USD | SPDR Gold Trust | -0.59 | May 31 2024 | 1.62 | 2.99 | 15.09 | 14.65 | 11.82 | 5.48 | 5.91 | 4.87 |
| Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1927 | ||||||||||||
| (*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York) | ||||||||||||
| US Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.36% , 5Y: 4.18% , 10Y: 2.85% , 30Y: 2.55% | ||||||||||||
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2023, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio granted a 1.98% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024
An investment of 1$, since May 1994, now would be worth 9.21$, with a total return of 820.63% (7.68% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.33$, with a net total return of 332.67% (5.00% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1927, now would be worth 2453.72$, with a total return of 245271.80% (8.35% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 138.72$, with a net total return of 13772.41% (5.20% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
Metrics of Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
- the actual US Inflation rates.
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 30 April 2024 (~97 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX (~97Y) | |
| Investment Return (%) | -2.86 | 1.38 | 12.16 | 6.09 | 0.65 | 5.72 | 5.46 | 7.26 | 7.68 | 8.35 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | -3.16 | 0.24 | 10.13 | 2.64 | -4.60 | 1.48 | 2.53 | 4.54 | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.31 | 1.14 | 1.85 | 3.36 | 5.50 | 4.18 | 2.85 | 2.60 | 2.55 | 3.00 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -8.07 | -17.79 | -17.79 | -17.79 | -17.79 | -17.79 | -48.31 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 5 | 28* | 28* | 28* | 28* | 28* | 70 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 37 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | - | - | - | - | - | 1935 06 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | -23.45 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 71 | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1937 03 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 13 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1938 03 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 58 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | - | - | - | - | - | 1943 01 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 6 | 35* | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 74 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 05 | 2021 06 | 2020 08 | 2020 08 | 2020 08 | 2020 08 | 1927 01 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2024 04 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1933 02 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -10.54 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.28 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -8.94 | -23.47 | -23.47 | -23.47 | -23.47 | -23.47 | -34.73 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 5 | 35* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 44 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 11 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | - | - | - | - | - | 1933 04 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | -27.60 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 96 | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 1946 06 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 21 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1948 02 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 75 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | - | - | - | - | - | 1954 05 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 7 | 36* | 54 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 151 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 05 | 2021 05 | 2019 05 | 2017 12 | 2017 12 | 2017 12 | 1936 12 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 11 | 2024 04 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1949 06 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -1.97 | -4.60 | -0.51 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.01 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 11.52 | 11.14 | 10.37 | 8.48 | 8.11 | 7.75 | 8.82 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.07 | -0.18 | 0.37 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.49 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.10 | -0.26 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.69 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 3.24 | 8.19 | 6.48 | 4.90 | 4.10 | 3.58 | 6.94 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.53 | 0.06 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 0.95 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 0.75 | 0.04 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.17 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 50% | 50% | 60% | 62% | 65% | 65% | 64% | |||
| Positive Months | 6 | 18 | 36 | 75 | 156 | 237 | 759 | |||
| Negative Months | 6 | 18 | 24 | 45 | 84 | 123 | 409 | |||
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 5.46 | 9.19 | 10.44 | 17.05 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.68 | 4.68 | 2.31 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 2.53 | 7.18 | 7.89 | 9.91 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.87 | 1.87 | 0.35 | |||||||
ROLLING PERIODS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 26.55 | 17.94 | 13.45 | 10.44 | 9.09 | 7.68 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -14.81 | 0.58 | 3.16 | 4.68 | 6.85 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | 87.72 | 29.61 | 20.24 | 11.55 | 7.36 | 7.11 | ||||
| PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | - | - | - | 2.05 | 4.60 | 5.47 | ||||
| WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 24.39 | 15.18 | 11.16 | 7.89 | 6.69 | 5.00 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -20.83 | -4.79 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 4.16 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 84% | 92% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | 87.72 | 29.61 | 20.24 | 11.55 | 7.36 | 7.11 | ||||
| PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | - | - | - | 2.05 | 4.60 | 5.47 | ||||
| WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | ||||||||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1927 - Apr 2024) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 72.34 | 24.69 | 20.88 | 17.05 | 13.89 | 12.46 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -32.17 | -17.91 | -6.33 | 2.31 | 4.53 | 5.91 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 82% | 95% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | 84.48 | 26.30 | 16.08 | 8.78 | 5.31 | 4.23 | ||||
| PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | - | - | - | 0.35 | 1.98 | 2.60 | ||||
| WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 84.55 | 24.38 | 19.68 | 9.91 | 7.73 | 7.37 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -24.69 | -11.40 | -4.33 | 0.35 | 2.36 | 3.19 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 73% | 88% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | 84.48 | 26.30 | 16.08 | 8.78 | 5.31 | 4.23 | ||||
| PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized | - | - | - | 0.35 | 1.98 | 2.60 | ||||
| WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | ||||||||||
Terms and Definitions
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation. - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio? Read more here
The first official book of
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 30 April 2024 (~97 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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