Brock Purdy began preparations for the San Francisco 49ers’ 2023 season with his throwing arm in a sling and ended it with more passing yards than any quarterback in franchise history.
The performance cemented head coach Kyle Shanahan’s hunch coming out of 2022: He’d finally found someone who could run his offense exactly the way he wanted it. Purdy completed 69.4 percent of his attempts, put two of his pass catchers — Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle — over the 1,000-yard mark and emerged as a team leader, no easy accomplishment on a squad full of established veteran stars.
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Players were angry and subdued after their Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in February, with most trying to exit their podium appearances as quickly as possible. But several took time to say how well Purdy, who’d only turned 24 a month and a half earlier, handled himself in the mega-watt spotlight.
“He was great. He did everything necessary to win us the game,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “Got us two opportunities there before the end of the game, obviously overtime to give the defense a chance to go out there and end it, and we didn’t do it.”
Training camp is approaching late next month, and the 2024 season — in which the 49ers hope to again be Super Bowl contenders — begins Sept. 9 against the New York Jets. With that in mind, The Athletic’s Matt Barrows and David Lombardi are again teaming up for an eight-part series that looks at every aspect of the 49ers roster, starting with Purdy and the quarterbacks.
Purdy’s toughness and character were perhaps his most impressive traits in 2023.
GO DEEPERKawakami: Now it's all about the 49ers' Brock Purdy timelineHe rehabilitated from offseason elbow surgery with the sophistication of a 10-year veteran and, even after the procedure was delayed, was ready for the start of training camp. And he didn’t miss a game due to injury. The only one he sat out was a meaningless regular-season finale.
That meant his franchise record for yards in a season, 4,280, was done in 16 games, the same number Joe Montana, Steve Young, Jeff Garcia and others played in their eras.
A regular Purdy critique was that he was merely a product of Shanahan’s offense and the all-star cast around him and that he couldn’t engineer the type of comeback win for which Montana, and in recent years Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, were famous.
That seemed to ring true at midseason when comeback attempts in Cleveland and Minnesota fell short. But it was Purdy and the offense that bailed the 49ers out of lackluster starts in the playoffs. He completed 81 percent of his throws in the second half of the NFC Championship Game to erase a 24-7 halftime deficit to the Detroit Lions.
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He also nearly went toe-to-toe with Mahomes in the Super Bowl. A promising overtime drive stalled at Kansas City’s 4-yard line when guard Spencer Burford failed to pick up defensive lineman Chris Jones. The 49ers settled for a field goal that Mahomes answered with a game-winning touchdown drive. — Barrows
By the numbers
How much better was Purdy in 2023 than 2022?
We’ve revisited a comparison of all 49ers quarterbacks under Shanahan every offseason. No single performance had come close to rivaling Jimmy Garoppolo’s sensational five-start stretch to close 2017 until Purdy was more efficient over his 16 games in 2023.
Here are the numbers:
49ers QBs under Shanahan
| QB | ANYA | DVOA | SR | TO EPA/G | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brock Purdy '23 | 9.0 | 42.5% | 56% | -4.0 | 5.4% |
Brock Purdy '22 | 7.6 | 21.6% | 50% | -1.3 | -0.9% |
Jimmy Garoppolo '22 | 7.6 | 30.4% | 51% | -1.8 | -0.7% |
Trey Lance '22 | 4.2 | -42.3% | 39% | -2.5 | -17.3% |
Jimmy Garoppolo '21 | 7.4 | 17.9% | 49% | -4.5 | 2.7% |
Trey Lance '21 | 8.0 | 20.4% | 40% | -1.3 | -4.1% |
Jimmy Garoppolo '20 | 6.2 | 9.3% | 50% | -2.2 | 0.2% |
Nick Mullens '20 | 5.8 | -7.7% | 48% | -8.6 | -2.6% |
C.J. Beathard '20 | 7.4 | -1.0% | 48% | -1.3 | -1.0% |
Jimmy Garoppolo '19 | 7.2 | 10.8% | 51% | -5.9 | 2.4% |
Jimmy Garoppolo '18 | 7.2 | -12.5% | 53% | -4.3 | -6.9% |
Nick Mullens '18 | 6.7 | 4.2% | 48% | -6.2 | 1.9% |
C.J. Beathard '18 | 4.5 | -23.1% | 47% | -9.9 | -7.1% |
C.J. Beathard '17 | 5.0 | -27.0% | 41% | -4.9 | -7.1% |
Brian Hoyer '17 | 4.7 | -16.9% | 40% | -2.4 | -6.2% |
Jimmy Garoppolo '17 | 7.6 | 39.1% | 55% | -3.2 | 6.0% |
Darker blue signifies performance further above the NFL median, and darker red denotes performance further below it.
ANYA is “adjusted net yards per attempt,” which is an effective way of putting yards per attempt, touchdowns, interceptions and sacks under the same umbrella. Consider it a cumulative measure of passing efficiency.
Purdy’s mark of 9.01 ANYA was the fourth best of QBs who played a full season in NFL history, trailing only 2004 Peyton Manning (9.78), 2011 Aaron Rodgers (9.39) and 2016 Matt Ryan (9.03).
DVOA stands for “defense-adjusted value over average.” It’s a passing efficiency metric that allows us to judge a quarterback’s effectiveness relative to down and distance while also factoring in the quality of opposing defenses.
Over the past two decades, only Manning, Rodgers, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers have delivered better single DVOA seasons than Purdy did in 2023.
TO EPA/Gis a measure of the expected points lost per game due to giveaways charged to each QB. The context of interceptions and lost fumbles is vital: An end-of-half pick on a Hail Mary, for example, is not a damaging play. But an interception thrown deep in minus-territory certainly is.
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Purdy’s mark here is notable in that it was worse than the league average. There’s room for improvement in this regard and perhaps a path to greater efficiency for Purdy.
CPOE, or “completion percentage over expectation,” factors in the length of throws to more precisely gauge accuracy than raw completion rate.
Purdy made a huge jump from 2022 to 2023 in CPOE, an indication he began pushing the envelope with more aggressive throws in his second season — and doing so with accuracy. That led to the uptick in efficiency, though it’s possible more daring play also translated to Purdy’s worse marks in the giveaway column.
For all his success, Brock Purdy was below league average in a key stat regarding costly turnovers. (Kelley L Cox / USA Today)
But if such a trade-off existed, the aggregate efficiency numbers say it was worth it.
Perhaps the most overarching illustration of Purdy’s effectiveness lies in this graph from Ben Baldwin, which charts teams’ Pro Football Focus pass-block grades on the X-axis and quarterbacks’ efficiency by expected points added (EPA) per play on the Y-axis. The 49ers ranked No. 24 in cumulative pass-block grade, yet Purdy was far and away the league’s most efficient QB.
How was Purdy able to consistently beat pressure in 2023?
His pressure-to-sack rate of 14.1 percent ranked fifth in the NFL, per Field Vision. This is a testament to Purdy’s ability to move under duress and create opportunities downfield. But it’s also an indicator of how consistently Purdy releases the ball on time in the context of Shanahan’s offense.
His excellence over the middle of the field with intermediate passes has been well documented. Purdy’s average of 12.6 yards per attempt on throws that traveled between 10 and 19 yards downfield is the highest mark on PFF’s record, which goes back about 20 years.
Meanwhile, Purdy’s ability to deliver deep has been less heralded but perhaps even more impressive.
We've seen the graph showing Purdy's staggering #1 efficiency charted vs 49ers' below-average pass pro grade.
We know Purdy has been great over the middle. Look where else he excelled when pressured: Deep + outside the numbers.
A look further under the hood from @FieldVisionMi pic.twitter.com/UnNaFDgiYK
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) June 24, 2024
The success on throws traveling over 20 yards and outside the numbers suggests that Aiyuk, Purdy’s most efficient receiver over the past two seasons, is an integral component of the quarterback’s success. The rapport between the two has been notable and is apparent in the advanced statistics. — Lombardi
GO DEEPERBrandon Aiyuk says 49ers 'don't want me back'Offseason plan
Purdy spent all of the 2023 offseason trying to get his arm as close to normal as possible. He can take a far more holistic approach this year, working on everything from increasing foot speed and elusiveness to building throwing velocity, something he successfully started doing in the run-up to the 2022 NFL Draft.
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Purdy also has said he’d work on getting better “at my craft.” That includes figuring out how to thwart the aggressive press coverage techniques opponents used against him in the playoffs and cutting down on interceptions. Though his 2.5 interception percentage (11 interceptions in 444 attempts) in 2023 was better than that of Garoppolo, his predecessor, it ranked in the bottom third among starting quarterbacks.
The 49ers also are looking for a replacement for 2023 backup Sam Darnold, who’s now with the Minnesota Vikings. The front-runner is newcomer Joshua Dobbs, who became a starter last season — first with the Arizona Cardinals, then with the Vikings — following five largely obscure seasons. Dobbs doesn’t have Darnold’s cannon-like arm, but he’s a strong thrower who can use his legs to gouge over-aggressive defenses. Last season he ran for 421 yards with six touchdowns.
Because the emergency, No. 3 quarterback on game days now can be elevated from the practice squad, teams might be inclined to keep just two passers on the active roster, whereas last season most teams, including the 49ers, kept three.
Dobbs will have to hold off Brandon Allen for that No. 2 role. But of the two, Allen seems more likely to pass through waivers — and onto the practice squad — without getting poached. — Barrows
2024 outlook
Purdy’s red-hot NFL start in 2022 was a sensational story, but his elbow injury to close the season put a damper on outlooks regarding his future. Since Purdy returned an even better quarterback in 2023, the lid has come off expectations.
How good can Purdy be? For the first time, he’s fully healthy as the 49ers’ starter in the offseason. This, at least in theory, should allow Purdy to develop an even greater command of Shanahan’s offense. We’ll see if that can lead to a lower giveaway rate and even better efficiency metrics.
Entering last season, we’d viewed Purdy in relation to past 49ers quarterbacks under Shanahan. That’s the statistical league in which he resided. But since his 2023 performance statistically rivaled some of the best QB showings over the past 20 years, it’s best to take a bigger-picture look going into 2024.
Studying the numbers of the top seasons of recent greats — 2004 Manning, 2007 Brady, 2009 Drew Brees, 2011 Rodgers, 2016 Ryan and 2018 Mahomes own the most efficient seasons of the past two decades — offers a valuable and relevant new lens.
Top QB seasons of past two decades
| QB | ANYA | DVOA | SR | TO | CPOE | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
'04 Peyton Manning | 9.78 | 58.9% | 59% | -2.9 | N/A | N/A |
'07 Tom Brady | 8.88 | 54.1% | 59% | -2.6 | 7.8% | 87.0 |
'09 Drew Brees | 8.31 | 36.7% | 54% | -3.9 | 7.5% | 82.0 |
'11 Aaron Rodgers | 9.39 | 46.6% | 55% | -1.5 | 9.0% | 83.8 |
'16 Matt Ryan | 9.03 | 39.1% | 55% | -2.5 | 6.9% | 79.6 |
'18 Patrick Mahomes | 8.89 | 39.9% | 53% | -3.4 | 4.5% | 80.3 |
'23 Brock Purdy | 9.01 | 42.5% | 56% | -4.0 | 5.4% | 72.8 |
Purdy’s 2023 campaign stacks up remarkably well, especially considering his age. But the data is clear. There’s still meat on the bone, especially in that turnover column. Entering a season of massive stakes — the 49ers are Super Bowl favorites and Purdy will be eligible for a contract extension in 2025 — it’s time to see what the 24-year-old has in store. — Lombardi
(Top photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
