30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista (2024)

FAQs

30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista? ›

From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

The nation's top economists say the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates higher than 2.5 percent — often considered the “goldilocks,” not-too-tight, not-too-loose level for its benchmark federal funds rate — until the end of 2026, Bankrate's quarterly economists' poll found.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.

But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the end of 2025, suggests that further reductions in mortgage rates lie ahead. We think the average mortgage rate will drop from close to 5% now to 3.5% by end-2025.

Overview: Predictions for 30-year mortgage rates in 2027 reveal a consistent downward trajectory, commencing at 5.67%-6.03% in January. Monthly reductions are expected, culminating in a year-end rate of 4.84%, showcasing a substantial overall decline from the initial point.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.

That means the mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.” Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA's baseline forecast is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.

Overall, forecasters predict mortgage rates to continue easing, but not as much as previously thought. While McBride had expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the new economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year, he says.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2024? In Fannie Mae's April rate forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise said it expects 30-year fixed rates to end 2024 at 6.4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association also predicts the rate will drop to 6.4% by the end of the year.

What will the mortgage rate be in 2028? ›

Will mortgage rates come down in the next 5 years? Lord: “For the rest of 2023, I predict rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 7.3%, followed by 6.1% in 2024, 5.5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.

If you are looking to buy a house you may want to wait until 2026. Home sellers would probably be wise to sell before 2026. Likewise, if you are looking to downsize, it would be to your economic advantage to do it sooner rather than later. The reason, of course, is the outsized impact of the baby boomer generation.

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.

The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December. For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago.

Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years

ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.

Current Situation. The Fed is currently raising interest rates to counteract inflation. The policymakers expect rates to stay above 5% in 2024 and around 4% by the end of 2025.

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.